Tel Aviv shares close sharply lower as cleantech sinks, oil and gas jumps

Market review: live updates, trends, indices, stock prices, bonds, foreign exchange, commodities and analyst recommendations

17:30 At the close of trading, the Tel Aviv 35 Index shed 0.9%, the Tel Aviv 125 fell 1.1%, and the Tel Aviv 90 recorded a sharp decline of 2.1%. Leading the negative trend was the cleantech index, which plunged more than 4%. The declines from yesterday continued today as well, with market sentiment being set entirely by the volatile geopolitical arena. Against the backdrop of trading, regional instability continues, after Iran announced on Monday that it was halting attacks against Israel, under threat to resume them if the operation in Lebanon continues, and tensions escalated sharply with the United States after an Iranian strike on an American helicopter, which led to a retaliatory strike by Trump in Iran. At the same time, the prime minister clarified that the conflict with Iran and Hezbollah “is not over yet,” while fighting in the north continues at high intensity and the IDF is evacuating the city of Tyre.

The only green index today was the Tel Aviv Oil and Gas Index, which rose 2.5% against the overall trend. Among the stocks that stood out positively in the sector were Teva, Aritt Industries and NewMed Energy, which corrected yesterday’s declines. Green energy companies took a heavy hit, with Nופר Energy, Doral and Meshek Energy plunging 6% to 8%. Mivtach Shamir shares recorded a sharp decline. The company responded this morning to media reports about a possible flotation of its subsidiary, Shamir Energy, saying to the exchange: “There is no need to respond on the matter. If there is a material development in any of its activities, the company will report as required.”

A red trend is also being recorded in government and corporate debt. The Tel Gov Shekel 10+ Index led the declines with a 0.2% drop, while the Tel Gov-General Index shed 0.1%. In corporate debt, the Tel Bond 20 Index fell 0.08%, and the Tel Bond 40 and Tel Bond 60 indices each posted a slight decline of 0.06%.

ICL (formerly Israel Chemicals) reported to the exchange a significant debt raising of $800 million from institutional investors, as part of a private placement on the Tase Up platform. The raise drew strong demand, reaching a peak of $2.6 billion. The bonds were raised at an interest rate of 6.036%. This is the company’s first debt raising since 2018, and the company notes positively the low interest spread achieved, despite the current high-rate environment in the economy. The proceeds are intended to refinance existing, more expensive debt, as well as to finance the company’s growth strategy, which includes potential acquisitions in the fields of specialty fertilizers and food ingredients.

Yaron Friedman, head of research in the investment division at Bank Leumi, commented on the turbulence in the markets: “Since April, with the end of the campaign in Iran, Trump has sometimes threatened and sometimes said that ‘the deal will be signed within days.’ Today we are on the negative side of that equation, following the downing of the American helicopter in Hormuz last night, the U.S. response and the threatening message from the American president.”

“The early trading on Wall Street this morning signaled pressure, with negative futures, though not hysterically so. These are accompanied by relatively moderate increases in oil prices and in the dollar-shekel rate, but not at levels indicating panic. By contrast, the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, which usually shows some resilience to geopolitical events, probably because we are already used to uncertainty, is down today by about 1.5%.” He added that “what stands out on the downside are mainly electricity producers and companies operating in the data center market, in light of reports about an intention to impose taxation in the field, regardless of what is happening in the geopolitical arena.”

Friedman added that “alongside all this, it is worth noting another data point, despite the ongoing security turmoil in the various arenas, Israel’s CDS continues to decline. In other words, despite the threats and the continued fighting in Lebanon, the local economy’s risk premium continues to contract. This trend shows more than anything that, despite everything, foreign investors still view the local economy relatively positively, and that is an important bright spot, especially on a day of market declines like today.”

After a volatile day in the foreign exchange market, during which the dollar opened stronger but then weakened sharply following the release of May inflation data, there was a later recovery, and it strengthened by about 0.33% to trade around 2.96 shekels.

16:15 In response to the release of the U.S. consumer price index for May, the foreign exchange market reacted immediately. The dollar weakened by about 0.5% after the publication and fell to 2.96 shekels. Later, a moderate recovery was recorded, and now its rate is approaching 2.97 shekels.

16:10 Declines in Tel Aviv are continuing and moderating slightly. The Tel Aviv 35 Index is down 1.4%, the Tel Aviv 90 is plunging 2.3%, and the Tel Aviv 125 is losing 1.7% of its value. Leading the negative trend in stocks are the cleantech and energy infrastructure indices, which are showing sharp declines of up to 4%. The only index trading in the green is Tel Aviv Oil and Gas, which is jumping 2.5%. The gains in the index come against the backdrop of the security tensions and reports of an American strike in Iran. A red trend is also being recorded in government and corporate debt. The Tel Gov Shekel 10+ Index leads the declines with a 0.3% drop, while the Tel Gov-General Index loses 0.1%. In corporate debt, the Tel Bond 20 Index falls 0.09%, and the Tel Bond 40 and Tel Bond 60 indices each record a slight decline of 0.08%.

15:35 The U.S. consumer price index for May shows an annual increase of 4.2%, in line with analysts’ expectations. Inflation is thus rising to a three-year high.

15:08 Another stock falling sharply is Mivtach Shamir. The company responded this morning to reports that it intends to float its subsidiary Shamir Energy. “In response to reports that appeared in the media concerning a possible flotation of the company’s subsidiary, Shamir Energy Group, the company wishes to clarify that there is no need to respond on the matter and that if there is a material development in any of its activities, including Shamir Energy Group, the company will report as required.”

14:31 Against the backdrop of geopolitical escalation and expected declines on Wall Street, the losses are deepening. The Tel Aviv Index is down 1.7% and the Tel Aviv 90 is down 2.6%. The index of the largest Tel Aviv stocks is down 2%. Trump said today that “it took the Iranians too long to negotiate a deal. Now they will have to pay the price.” Later, he told Fox News that he is close to ordering new strikes against power stations and bridges in Iran. The cleantech stock index stands out negatively, shedding about 4.5%. Due to the surge in the number of server farms and their enormous consumption of electricity and water for cooling, the Finance Ministry is examining imposing a tax on server farms in order to reflect their impact on gas consumption and electricity prices. The possibility of requiring server farms to build adjacent power plants, as in the United States, is also being examined. Energy stocks in Tel Aviv, which have recently also been initiators of declines, are falling significantly due to concern over a special tax on server farms. Mega Or shares are down about 7%. The company of Tzachi Nahmias has turned from a traditional income-producing real estate and logistics company into a technology and artificial intelligence stock in every sense. Its huge rally since the start of the year, which brought it into the Tel Aviv 35 benchmark index, came almost entirely from the activity of its server farm division. Additional energy stocks that have reported initiatives in the server farm field are dragging down the Tel Aviv 125, Nופר Energy, Meshek Energy and Doral Energy. One of the reasons for the boom in Israel’s energy sector in recent years, including renewable energy, which has surged 130% over the past year, is the expectation of the mass establishment of server farms following the AI revolution. However, the Finance Ministry fears negative effects on grid congestion, supply reliability and the use of Israel’s limited gas resources. Several solutions, including taxation, have been raised to help address the problems.

13:48 While the defense companies index is falling today by about 1%, two stocks within it are rising. Aritt Industries is recovering after falling sharply yesterday. This follows media reports that the Defense Ministry froze orders from small and medium-sized defense companies due to budget overruns. In the race to find advanced solutions to Hezbollah’s explosive drones, TSG is launching for the first time at an arms exhibition in Berlin a new system called Dream-Weaver System. It is an autonomous system based on artificial intelligence for countering drones and UAVs. According to the company, the system has 90% automation and responds within seconds, and is intended to provide rapid protection against low-altitude threats. It is already in use by security organizations in Israel and abroad.

12:58 Declines in Tel Aviv are deepening, and the leading indices, Tel Aviv 35 and Tel Aviv 90, are already down 1.3% and 2% respectively. The reason is the continued IDF operation today in southern Lebanon and the ongoing exchange of blows between Iran and the United States. Futures in Wall Street are red again today, with declines also in Europe and Asia. The cleantech and technology indices stand out negatively, down more than 3%. Against the trend, and in light of the rise in oil prices this morning, the Oil and Gas Index is jumping about 3%, with Energean, NewMed Energy partnership and Delek Group, which controls it, standing out, as well as Ratio and Navitas Petroleum partnership.

12:19 Teva’s raw materials division, TAPI, which was supposed to be sold but whose sale did not materialize, announces “adjustments in its operations in order to support its long-term growth strategy.” This is a division that, because it was put up for sale, currently operates as an independent and separate company from Teva, with its own management and strategy. The process will also include workforce reductions. According to the company’s announcement, over the next two years about 250 positions in TAPI in Israel are expected to be gradually eliminated, and it says that “the move is being carried out in full coordination and cooperation with the workers’ representatives and the Histadrut, with a long-term view to strengthening the division’s operational stability in Israel.” The division currently employs about 650 workers in Israel.

11:27 In the race to find advanced solutions to Hezbollah’s explosive drones, TSG is launching for the first time at an arms exhibition in Berlin a new system called Dream-Weaver System. It is an autonomous system based on artificial intelligence for countering drones and UAVs. According to the company, the system has 90% automation and responds within seconds, and is intended to provide rapid protection against low-altitude threats. It is already in use by security organizations in Israel and abroad.

10:49 After a relatively calm open, declines in Tel Aviv are intensifying. The exchange is falling again today in line with the global trend. Tel Aviv 35 is down 0.8% and Tel Aviv 90 is down 1%. The technology and cleantech indices are leading the declines, about 2%. On the other hand, the Oil and Gas Index is reacting to this morning’s rise in oil prices and is up about 1.3%. Mega Or shares are plunging about 8% after the issue of taxation on server farms has come onto Israel’s economic and government agenda. Due to the surge in the number of server farms and their enormous consumption of electricity and water for cooling, the Finance Ministry is examining imposing a tax on server farms in order to reflect their impact on gas consumption and electricity prices. The possibility of requiring server farms to build adjacent power plants, as in the United States, is also being examined. Mega Or, owned by Tzachi Nahmias, has turned from a traditional income-producing real estate and logistics company into a technology and artificial intelligence stock in every sense. Its crazy surge since the start of the year, which brought it into the flagship Tel Aviv 35 index, came almost entirely from the activity of its server farm division. Additional energy stocks that have reported initiatives in the server farm field are dragging down the Tel Aviv 125, Nופר Energy, Meshek Energy and Doral Energy. Nופר reported about two weeks ago that it signed a partnership agreement with the real estate company BSR Shoham to establish a data center on a 32-dunam site, for an investment of 361 million shekels.

10:20 Mivtach Shamir is responding this morning to reports that the company intends to float its subsidiary Shamir Energy. “In response to reports that appeared in the media concerning a possible flotation of the company’s subsidiary, Shamir Energy Group, the company wishes to clarify that there is no need to respond on the matter and that if there is a material development in any of its activities, including Shamir Energy Group, the company will report as required.”

10:15 The dollar continues to strengthen this morning against the shekel, against the backdrop of the escalation between the United States and Iran and the continued war in the north. The dollar is now trading at 2.965 and is up about 1% against the shekel, while the euro is up 0.8% to 3.43 shekels. The background is last night’s further exchange of blows between Iran and the United States, following renewed tensions after an American helicopter was downed on Monday near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump accused Iran of downing the helicopter and promised that the United States would respond to the attack. The U.S. Central Command announced this morning that its forces carried out “self-defense” strikes against Iran. At the same time, Iranian media reported that Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz was attacked and that about six explosions were heard in the area, according to a Bloomberg report.

10:00 Trading in Tel Aviv opened lower. Tel Aviv 35 is down 0.4% and Tel Aviv 90 is down 0.3%. The banks and insurance indices are declining. On the other hand, the Oil and Gas Index is reacting to this morning’s rise in oil prices and is up about 0.8%, with Modiin Energy standing out in it today as well. The limited partnership, which is engaged in oil and gas exploration, jumped yesterday after announcing this morning that it is examining a capital raising through the issuance of securities as part of financing the acquisition of rights in an oil field in the Gulf of Mexico. The dual-listed stocks are closing gaps, Teva is jumping more than 4%, while Tower, Camtek and Nova are falling.

08:10 1. The stock market, as in recent days, this morning trading in Tel Aviv will open against the backdrop of turmoil in global markets and geopolitical tension. Last night there was another exchange of blows between Iran and the United States, following renewed tensions between the two after an American helicopter was downed on Monday near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump accused Iran of downing the helicopter and promised that the United States would respond to the attack. The U.S. Central Command announced this morning that its forces carried out “self-defense” strikes against Iran. At the same time, Iranian media reported that Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz was attacked and that about six explosions were heard in the area, according to a Bloomberg report. This morning in Asia there are declines, as there are in New York futures. Among the dual-listed stocks returning to trading in Tel Aviv, it will again be semiconductor stocks that weigh on the open, Tower, Camtek and Nova will fall about 2%, and Nice and Enlight will also weigh on the open. Teva will offset with a 4% gain. “Thanks” to the weakening of the shekel, the arbitrage gaps have narrowed.

● Passive funds were forced to “dump” goods, and the list of losers in bond-linked securities was exposed yesterday. In Ahuzat Beit, pessimism returned to the market, which closed lower and with declines that deepened toward the close. The Tel Aviv Index fell 1.2% and the Tel Aviv 90 0.7%. Leading the declines was the insurance index, which dropped more than 2.5%. The Tel Aviv Oil and Gas Index fell 1.9%. The cleantech index was the only one among the sector indices to post a gain, and the stocks in it led the Tel Aviv 125, בראשן Doral Energy, Enlight Energy and Energix. Ormat lost more than 4%. Also yesterday, Aritt Industries fell after media reports that the Defense Ministry froze orders from small and medium-sized defense companies due to budget overruns. Mitav Investments shares fell about 4%. The reason is the expected sale by brothers Eli and Nir Barkat and their partner Yuval Rakavi of their shares in the company. Last week, the investment fund of the three, BRM, hired JPMorgan to seek a foreign investor to buy its stake, 24.1%, in the investment house. Modiin Energy, the limited partnership engaged in oil and gas exploration, jumped after announcing this morning that it is examining a capital raising through the issuance of securities as part of financing the acquisition of rights in an oil field in the Gulf of Mexico. Also in the energy sector, the Dorad power station signed an EPC agreement with Manrev, together with an international partner. Manrev will receive half of the amount, כלומר 1.5 billion shekels.

● Zvi Stepak: There is no bubble in the markets, but a correction of 10% to 20% is בהחלט warranted

The Asian markets opened this morning with a negative trend, with South Korea’s KOSPI leading the declines with a drop of more than 3%. The Nikkei and Hang Seng are each losing more than 1%, and the Shenzhen is falling about 1.9%. Oil prices are posting moderate gains. New York futures are also down by as much as 0.4%.

Yesterday saw another turbulent day on Wall Street. Although trading opened with gains, in continuation of those from the start of the week, the market quickly turned to panic and sharp declines. These moderated toward the close, and the Nasdaq fell “only” 1%, the S&P 500 0.3%. The Dow Jones ended with a slight gain. Adding fuel to the fire was U.S. President Donald Trump, who said during trading hours that the United States “will respond,” after accusing Iran of downing an Apache helicopter that was patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. The SOXX ETF, which fell 10% on Friday, surged at the open yesterday, but then moved into a decline of about 8%, which also eased in the last minutes of trading. Leading the declines were the stocks that had surged sharply recently, led by Marvell Technology, as well as Micron Technology, Intel, AMD and even Nvidia. Wall Street continued yesterday’s rotation, investors fleeing technology stocks after Friday’s sharp selloff continue to move into more defensive and stable stocks. This was especially evident because at the same time the S&P 500 fell about 1%, but 9 of the 11 sectors in the index and most stocks were actually trading higher. Today the technology sector, XLK, shed more than 2%. Smart money moved into real estate (XLRE), health care (XLV) and consumer staples (XLB). The picture reflects a classic “flight to safety” rotation, investors are reducing exposure to growth and AI stocks that have risen sharply this year, and moving money into companies with relatively stable demand even in periods of slowdown or uncertainty.

The market is trying to understand what is happening. The catalyst for the selloff in AI stocks is not entirely clear, but Brian Jacobsen, chief strategist at Annex Wealth Management, estimated that recent capital-raising moves by tech giants and the expected entry of new companies into the market may be contributing to the ongoing declines. According to him, Alphabet’s latest capital raise and SpaceX’s approaching IPO may affect market sentiment. “There may be a lot of truth in the view of AI trading as an ‘Icarus trade’ , the wings are starting to melt,” he wrote. He explained that when giant companies raise capital through offerings or share issuances, it may dilute existing shareholders. “Alphabet issued the first warning. Now there are ‘new toys’ for traders to play with, and the money has to come from somewhere,” he added. In other words, the market is not reacting to specific negative news, but to a deeper shift in capital structure and risk appetite around AI trading, after a very sharp and prolonged rally in the big technology stocks.

Apple shares traded lower. The day before yesterday, the first day of the annual WWDC developers conference, they fell about 2% after investors were disappointed by the company’s AI announcements and by fears that it is lagging in the AI race. Analysts believed that no clear path had been presented to generate significant revenue from artificial intelligence, that Apple continues to rely on Google Gemini rather than presenting a leading independent solution, that there are very few uses in which integration between Apple apps provides a meaningful advantage, and that Siri has improved somewhat, but is still below the level of other leading language models.

Also yesterday, Canadian payments company Nuvei is in advanced talks to acquire international payments company Payoneer in a deal valued at about $2.7 billion. According to the report, the purchase price includes the cash in Payoneer’s coffers, so the enterprise value is estimated at about $2.3 billion.

2. Bond markets A calm was recorded yesterday in the Tel Aviv debt market, after turbulence following the short campaign against Iran earlier this week. Relatively sharp declines were recorded during trading, but these eased later. In the week that ended, government bonds rose by about half a percent, and posted a positive trend with a 1.3% increase in the Tel Gov-General Index, which includes all of the State of Israel’s bonds. The yield to maturity embedded in that index is slightly below 3%. A year ago, during Operation “With All My Heart,” it jumped and stood at 3.7%. The decline since then reflects the continued drop in the perceived risk of the State of Israel’s debt, as seen by bondholders.

In the United States, yields on U.S. government bonds edged lower, and the yield on the 10-year bond fell four basis points to 4.53%. The yield on the 2-year bond, considered more sensitive to short-term interest-rate changes, fell three basis points to 4.13%. But yields are still high. The U.S. bond market is sending a clear message to the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, interest rates are not high enough yet. The clearest sign of this is the yield on the 2-year government bond, considered the most sensitive to interest-rate expectations. The yield jumped to a more than one-year high, while the Fed’s official rate range currently stands at 3.5% to 3.75%. In other words, the bond market is already pricing in a higher rate than the one that exists today. The move strengthened especially after the stronger-than-expected employment report, which showed that the U.S. labor market is still solid despite the high interest rate. Following the data, traders began pricing in a quarter-point rate hike already in October. Investors’ main concern is twofold, high energy prices following the war with Iran could bring back inflationary pressures. The boom in investment in artificial intelligence could overheat the economy and increase demand. Therefore, the market is increasingly expecting the Fed to tighten monetary policy again to prevent overheating. The situation creates a challenge for Warsh. Before taking office, he hinted more than once that monetary policy was already restraining economic activity and that there was room for easing in the future. Now he faces a bond market signaling exactly the opposite, that the Fed may be “behind the curve” in the fight against inflation. Eyes are now on the inflation data to be published today.

3. Commodities and currencies The dollar strengthened sharply yesterday against the shekel to 2.96 shekels. Against the backdrop of declines on Wall Street and threats by U.S. President Donald Trump, after Iran downed an American Apache helicopter, Ofer Klein, head of economics and research at Harel Insurance and Finance, addressed the issue: “Only about a week ago the dollar-shekel rate was approaching 2.8 shekels. Since then we received the governor’s remarks, reminding us that the shekel’s appreciation is one of the factors moderating inflation, foreign-exchange reserve data indicating about $800 million in purchases by the Bank of Israel, and subsequently escalation with Iran and sharp declines in global markets. The result, he said, was a sharp and rapid move to almost 3 shekels per dollar, though part of it has already been erased. Therefore, Klein says it is better to focus on what the volatility is telling us: the local market is very sensitive to the combination of interest rates, Bank of Israel intervention, geopolitical risk premium and global sentiment.”

Oil prices are posting moderate gains following the strike. Brent futures are up about 0.8% and trading around $92 a barrel, while U.S. crude is now trading around $88.9 a barrel, also up about 0.8%. Yesterday they fell sharply after signs of recovery in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The market expects ship traffic through the strait to increase soon. The significance for the market is that the fear of a prolonged disruption to oil supply from the Persian Gulf is beginning to weaken. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes, and a significant share of global oil exports passes through it. JPMorgan analysts also recently noted that the amount of oil flowing through the strait may be higher than what is visible in public data, in part thanks to quiet coordination by the United States with some of the tankers seeking to leave the Persian Gulf. For the markets, lower oil prices are positive news, reducing fears of higher inflation, easing pressure on bond yields, supporting consumer and technology stocks, and reducing the risk of further rate hikes by the Fed.

4. Macro Eyes are now on the inflation data to be published over the next two days, the Consumer Price Index, CPI, today, and the Producer Price Index, PPI. U.S. inflation is expected to cross the 4% threshold for the first time in three years, and this development could affect the economy and markets for the rest of the year. Weaker-than-expected data may calm the markets somewhat and reduce pressure for an additional rate hike. But if inflation does return above 4%, the market is expected to move from a discussion of “when will there be a rate cut” to a discussion of “will another rate hike be needed.”

The data are being published after more than three months of war with Iran, which has put pressure on prices around the world and also hurt consumer confidence in the United States. Economists estimate that the consumer price index rose 0.5% in May from April and 4.2% from the same period last year. If the forecasts are realized, this will be the highest annual inflation rate since April 2023 and an acceleration from the 3.8% rate recorded in the previous month. By contrast, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is expected to show a more moderate increase of 0.3% month over month and 2.9% year over year. Energy prices are expected once again to be the main factor behind the increase in the index, although food prices continue to rise as well. As of Tuesday, the average gasoline price in the United States stood at $4.16 per gallon, one dollar higher than in the same period last year.

5. IPO outlook The approaching mega-IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic raise a question that is occupying more and more investors on Wall Street: should one rush into the shares on the first day of trading, or wait on the sidelines?

History is not encouraging. After Facebook’s IPO on May 18, 2012, the stock fell 54% from peak to trough and ended its first trading year down 32%. During that period, the S&P 500 rose by about 10%. Truist Financial chief investment officer Keith Lerner examined 30 of the largest IPOs in recent years and found that returns tend to be negative both over a six-month horizon and over a 12-month horizon. In most cases, sharp declines are also recorded during the first year of trading.

Two key points from Lerner’s analysis: the average return over 6 months and 12 months from those 30 IPOs stands at a decline of about 9%. Among the biggest declines in the first year are Lyft, down 65%, Coinbase, down 55%, Robinhood, down 74%, and Rivian, down 67%.

But this time, perhaps something else entirely is at play, Bloomberg writes. The three companies heading to the stock market are no longer just large technology IPOs, but companies with almost systemic importance for the capital markets. SpaceX, which is seeking to raise $75 billion at a valuation of about $1.8 trillion, could become the largest IPO in history. At the same time, Anthropic filed a confidential IPO application in early June at a private valuation of about $965 billion, while OpenAI filed a similar application after its latest funding rounds valued it at about $852 billion. Altogether, this is a pipeline of IPOs with a combined value of about $3.6 trillion.

Such volumes explain why many on Wall Street believe the comparison with previous IPOs may be misleading. “These IPO giants will quickly capture a significant share of both stock indices and retail investors’ attention,” said Max Gokhman, senior vice president at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. However, it is important to be precise, these companies will not automatically enter the S&P 500 on the day of their IPO. Entry into the index requires meeting a series of criteria and approval by the index committee. Even SpaceX, if it is indeed floated at a valuation of $1.8 trillion, will not become part of the leading U.S. index overnight.

On the other hand, it is expected to be quickly included in various Nasdaq indices and attract demand from ETFs, technology funds and institutional investors who will want exposure to the company from day one. Beyond their size, the three companies enjoy a unique status because they sit at the heart of the hottest trends in the market. SpaceX is associated with the emerging space economy, while OpenAI and Anthropic are seen as leaders of the artificial intelligence revolution. For many investors, these are companies that shape entire industries, not just participate in them.

The excitement is already evident on the ground. “I have never been asked so much about an IPO as I have about SpaceX by our private clients and advisers,” Matt Stack, chief investment officer for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, told Bloomberg. However, he admitted that this level of interest is also “somewhat concerning” from a risk-management perspective.

And that may be the central point. On one hand stands history, which teaches that even excellent companies can disappoint investors after an IPO, especially when expectations are too high. On the other hand stands a new narrative, according to which SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic are no longer just large technology companies, but rare assets with an almost unique status in the capital markets. Therefore, the question is not only when to buy these shares, but whether this is just another wave of enthusiasm around tech IPOs, or the beginning of a new category of public companies, one that could reshape the market for years to come.