Turkey Seeks Advanced F-35 Jets Amid Strategic Shifts and Western Concerns
Dr. Eli Carmon, an expert on Israel-Turkey relations and the Middle East, explains the strategic motivations behind Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's push to acquire advanced American F-35 fighter jets, as well as the concerns this raises in Israel and the West. The potential U.S. approval of the F-35 sale to Turkey has alarmed Israeli security and political circles due to the implications for regional balance and technology security.
Turkey was originally a key partner in the F-35 development program and received two jets for training as part of its NATO membership. However, after Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 air defense system, the U.S. removed it from the program over fears that the coexistence of these systems could compromise F-35 technology secrets. Carmon traces this tension back to the 2005-2006 NATO-Russia crisis, noting that the F-35 project was partly a response to Russian threats. Turkey’s strategic alignment with NATO was disrupted by its acquisition of Russian defense systems.
Carmon also highlights the deterioration of Turkey-Russia relations during the Syrian civil war, especially after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet in 2015, leading to a serious crisis. Erdogan’s subsequent rapprochement with Putin was influenced by a failed coup attempt in Turkey, which Erdogan believed was supported by the U.S. and NATO. This context explains Turkey’s efforts to diversify its military suppliers and secure its regime against further coups.
The article notes that Turkey’s air defense is currently vulnerable after NATO removed Patriot missile batteries in 2014, and its attempts to buy Chinese systems failed, leading to the purchase of Russian S-400s. The presence of Russian systems on Turkish soil poses a threat to F-35 secrets if the jets are delivered. Negotiations between Erdogan and former U.S. President Trump have been influenced by Turkey’s role in Gaza and Syria, with Trump showing a favorable stance toward Erdogan.
Carmon interprets Turkey’s desire for F-35s as part of its self-image as a regional power and a key NATO southern flank defender against Russia. Turkey also cites Iranian missile threats as justification. While Erdogan views Israel as a military threat due to alliances with Greece and Cyprus, Carmon says Turkey does not need F-35s to threaten Israel, as Turkish forces are already near the Israeli border in northern Syria.
Finally, Carmon points out that Europe and NATO increasingly rely on Turkey’s military and drone industry amid U.S. retrenchment from Europe. Erdogan seeks to leverage this influence within NATO, including pushing for recognition of Israel as a military threat. Israel, meanwhile, can use diplomatic channels, including American officials and various ethnic lobbies in Washington, to oppose the F-35 sale to Turkey.
