Israel Braces for Possible Hezbollah Retaliation Over Lebanon Framework Deal
An Israeli security official said Saturday evening that Israel believes Hezbollah could respond in the coming days to the framework agreement with Lebanon by launching attacks on the IDF. Because of that assessment, the security establishment is preparing for the possibility of an escalation on the northern front. The official said Hezbollah will not sit idly by, but stressed that Israel’s freedom of action is not restricted. "If it attacks, we will remove threats and respond. We are also prepared for escalation," he said.
The official added that Israel is no longer following an old formula under which any fire toward its territory automatically triggered an attack on Hezbollah’s Dahiya district in Beirut. "Each case will be judged on its own merits," he said. "If there is an attack on communities in Israel, a decision will be made on how to respond. Dahiya may also be a target, but this is not an automatic response." The security establishment is also considering that an Israeli strike in Dahiya could trigger an Iranian response against Israel, and that Iran may act if it concludes the framework agreement overrides its memorandum of understanding with the United States on Lebanon.
Defense Minister Israel Katz addressed that scenario on Saturday night, saying that if it happens, "we will act against Iran with great force and demonstrate the gap in power between us." The official said Washington is unlikely to rush to restrict Israeli activity against Hezbollah if the group tries to derail the deal, arguing that hitting Hezbollah also serves Lebanon’s government and the American-mediated agreement. "The United States will not want to allow Iran and Hezbollah to sabotage the political process," he said.
Regarding the deal itself, the official said it is a framework agreement with pilot zones where the IDF will withdraw and the Lebanese army will take responsibility. He said the main achievement is that Israel is not withdrawing from the yellow line until Hezbollah disarms across all of Lebanon. Katz was personally involved in shaping the final wording and insisted the pilot areas not be inside the "yellow area," the anti-tank missile line. The Lebanese pushed for that demand, which extended the talks by another day. In the end, the sides agreed on a pilot plan that "bites into the expanded line" in areas the IDF captured over the past two weeks, so the Lebanese president can present the beginning of an Israeli withdrawal to the public. Katz also said he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu instructed the IDF to prepare for a prolonged stay in southern Lebanon.
