Netanyahu’s Possible Exit Looms Over Likud as Primary Rules Fight Intensifies

Talks inside Likud over the party’s primary mechanism are still dragging on, and tensions are rising ahead of the Constitution Committee meeting on Sunday. According to a report in Maariv, some party figures believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may consider an extraordinary move if his proposal is rejected at the party conference, although people familiar with the matter stress that he has not issued such a threat directly.

In recent days, Netanyahu’s aides have reportedly relayed messages to senior Likud figures saying that if his plan is defeated in the conference’s secret ballot, he may consider leaving together with most of the party’s Knesset faction. Because the Likud name belongs to the party, he could not use it, but a departure by most faction members with him could affect party funding and the broader political structure, according to those involved.

The dispute is centered on serious friction between Netanyahu and Likud Central Committee chairman, Minister Haim Katz, and MK David Bitan, over reserved slots on the party’s Knesset list. Sources in Likud say Netanyahu sent Katz a blunt message that if his demand for reservations is not met, he may take the candidates he wants to place on the list and operate with them outside Likud. Party figures say these are indirect messages meant mainly to increase pressure in the internal negotiations, not a genuine plan to break up the party or quit it.

Some in Likud warn that insisting on 10 reserved slots could sharply escalate the crisis. One source said, “Insisting on ten reserved slots could destroy Likud,” and added that a Netanyahu departure and the creation of a separate political framework would shake the entire system, with “a lot of champagne” opened in the camps of Gadi Eisenkot, Avigdor Liberman, and Naftali Bennett. They also believe Netanyahu will try to prevent an irreversible rupture. A private poll of 714 Likud members found 43.43% would leave Likud and support a new list led by Netanyahu if one were formed, while 20.04% said they would stay loyal to Likud and keep voting for it even without him. Mediation attempts are expected to continue until Sunday, and if they fail, the secret vote on the primary mechanism could become a direct political test of strength between Netanyahu and Likud institutions.