Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told a Municipal Government Conference on Wednesday that strength is what leads to alliances, normalization and peace, saying, “If you are strong, they will forge alliances with you and make peace with you, and if you are weak, especially in this region, your fate is sealed.” He added that in 30 years he sees Israel “stronger than ever,” able to defend itself and strike its enemies.
A Reuters analysis published the same day, based on interviews with analysts, former US officials and diplomats, argues that the war against Iran has damaged Netanyahu’s political brand. Reuters says the image he built, one of a leader who could sway US presidents and who insisted only sustained military pressure could restrain Tehran, has now been reversed by the emerging US-Iran memorandum of understanding. Instead of shaping Washington’s policy, Netanyahu is now being forced to accept it.
The report also says the foundations of the 2020 Abraham Accords, signed in Washington in September 2020, have eroded. Gulf sources told Reuters that the Gaza war, renewed discussion of annexation in Judea and Samaria, and a growing regional view of Netanyahu as more of a liability than an asset have slowed normalization, especially with Saudi Arabia. Some Gulf states are also quietly signaling interest in building ties with Iran. An Iranian source told Reuters, “Netanyahu’s hope to expand the Abraham Accords has been damaged. This is not only a victory for Iran. It is a failure for Netanyahu. The Islamic Republic survived and has emerged as a more influential regional player.”
Analysts said Netanyahu has also lost what they called his “Republican safety net.” For years he cultivated support in Donald Trump’s party, used it to offset tensions with Democratic administrations, and openly opposed Barack Obama’s 2015 Iran nuclear deal in a congressional speech arranged without White House approval. Now, one analyst told Reuters, “Republicans will not break with Trump for Netanyahu.” The report says Iran may try to portray any Israeli military action in Lebanon as an effort to undermine Trump’s diplomatic push, forcing Washington to choose between backing Israel and preserving its agreement with Iran.
Regional sources said the US, once seeing Netanyahu as an essential interlocutor, now views him as an obstacle to the deal it wants to protect. Reuters also says the gap between Washington and Jerusalem is wider than the personal relationship between Trump and Netanyahu, because Trump wants to avoid another Middle East war while Netanyahu sees continued pressure on Iran and Hezbollah as vital to Israel’s security. Despite Trump’s public criticism of Israeli strikes in Lebanon and Vice President J. D. Vance’s attack on Israeli ministers, two Israeli sources said Netanyahu is not worried those remarks will lead to major policy shifts, such as delays in arms deliveries. In the end, Reuters says Netanyahu wagered his political future on weakening or toppling Iran’s regime and on normalizing ties with Saudi Arabia through the Abraham Accords, but neither goal has been achieved so far.
