Israel is pushing ahead with expanded natural gas exports even though the professional work needed to determine how much gas must be reserved for the domestic market has not been completed, according to a State Comptroller report published Wednesday on securing the country’s natural gas supply. The report says the electricity sector relies heavily on natural gas, which accounts for 70% of the fuels used to generate power, yet the Energy Ministry still has not set long-term energy goals.
The comptroller sharply criticized a committee headed by the Energy Ministry’s director general, warning that climate change and the growth of server farms will raise demand in the coming years. Although gas resources are expected to run out within about two decades, the ministry is not prepared for a future in which Israel has no gas fields. The report says that without decisions ensuring full domestic supply, the gas kept in existing reservoirs may not meet local needs once demand and exports are both taken into account.
The report says Israel’s energy independence in electricity generation could be harmed in about 22 years, forcing the country to import natural gas or rely on other energy sources that have not yet been decided on. The Dayan Committee, which discussed increasing the domestic reserve requirement, met in February 2024 when there were about 105 BCM of unallocated gas. Even though that amount could cover all or part of the domestic gap for 25 years, the committee did not recommend raising the reserve requirement. If the government accepts that recommendation, the Energy Ministry could, at its discretion, approve export of all available gas.
The comptroller also said the committee used a demand forecast that may be too low because it did not include added consumption from server farms and climate impacts, as reflected in Nega’s forecasts. Those additions amount to about 41.5 BCM of extra domestic demand, meaning the committee’s recommended reserve would last only 20 years. The committee has still not finalized its recommendations almost two years after being appointed, and the government has also failed to review its gas policy even though it was required to do so after five years under government decision 4442 from January 2019.
The report notes that major gas decisions, including export permits and export infrastructure, have been taken without an updated, approved government policy. It also says the ministry has never produced an approved long-term master plan for the energy sector, despite repeated recommendations since 2012. The Energy Ministry said its forecasts balance domestic electricity needs with the strategic importance of exports, and that past export agreements helped expand output at Tamar and Leviathan and strengthen energy security. The ministry added that it is now working with Israel Natural Gas Lines on a comprehensive gas master plan.
