IDF target bank chief says a 2023 Lebanon strike could have changed the war

Lt. Col. S., the reserve commander who runs the IDF’s target bank, says he feels a deep sense of missed opportunity after October 7 and especially over a planned strike on Hezbollah on October 11, 2023. Speaking about the early days of the war, he said the army rushed to hit Hamas targets in Gaza under Operation “Sword of Damocles,” including headquarters, tunnels and the homes of senior Hamas figures, but that those strikes did not stop the assault on the Gaza border communities.

Four days later, while serving in reserves around the clock, S. says he came close to what he believes could have been a historic strike in Lebanon that was halted at the last moment. He said former defense minister Yoav Gallant had advanced a plan for a broad attack on Hezbollah shortly after the October 7 massacre, and that the operation was stopped just as Israeli jets were already in the air.

According to S., the aircraft were heading toward Beirut’s Dahieh district, where, he said, Hezbollah’s entire senior leadership and commanders were gathered in the same buildings. “The planes were already in the air when the political echelon instructed us to turn back,” he said. “I have no doubt that that evening we would have eliminated Hezbollah’s entire top leadership in one blow. I have no doubt the whole campaign would have looked different.” He added that the strike could have saved “hundreds of tons of bombs” that Israel later dropped during the war.

S. also said that under the current arrangement created after the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, Israel is effectively blocked from attacking Dahieh for now. Still, he said his unit continues to prepare detailed plans. “We have strike plans for every building in Dahieh,” he said. “Every building there is designated. Once we get approval from the political echelon, we will know how to act and strike.” Even so, he argued that completely leveling Dahieh is impossible because of its size and density, saying there are not enough bombs in the world to collapse the entire area.