A new look at a 2017 Lancet study says South Korea is on track to become the first country in history where girls born in 2030 will have an average life expectancy at birth above 90. The original forecast, led by Prof. Majid Ezzati of Imperial College London with the World Health Organization, estimated South Korean women born in 2030 would live to 90.8 on average, with a 57% chance of exceeding the 90-year mark by then.
The research compared 35 industrialized countries and found South Korea’s gains were driven by broad, relatively equal improvements in health and living conditions, not just advanced medicine. The key factors included better childhood nutrition, near-universal National Health Insurance coverage by the late 1980s, lower obesity rates, lower average BMI, lower average blood pressure than in Western countries, and more even gains across social classes.
The study also contrasted South Korea with the United States, which was projected to lag far behind by 2030 at 83.3 years for women and 79.5 for men. The authors blamed obesity, higher maternal and infant mortality, unequal access to care, and higher fatal violence rates for the US’s weaker performance. South Korea’s female life expectancy was 84.2 years in 2010, and the forecast said women born in 2030 would gain 6.6 more years, the biggest jump among the 35 countries studied.
The article notes that life expectancy growth has increasingly come from delaying deaths from chronic diseases such as heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes and dementia. It says the 90-year threshold, once seen as nearly impossible, could reshape pensions, healthcare, elder care, and retirement policy. South Korea was already confronting rapid aging and one of the world’s lowest birth rates when the forecast was made.
Recent data suggest the country is still moving toward the milestone, though not all the way there yet. Our World in Data reported 87.2 years for South Korean women in 2023, while official 2024 figures put total life expectancy at 83.7 years, including 86.6 for girls and 80.8 for boys. The article says COVID-19 briefly interrupted the trend in 2022, but life expectancy rose again in 2023 and 2024.
