Globs’ latest poll-of-polls, which averages at least three recent surveys from major Israeli media outlets, shows a renewed election picture as Israel heads back to the polls. The outlet notes that the averages may not total 120 seats because some parties move above and below the electoral threshold, and rounding can affect the count.
According to the average, Likud remains the largest party with 24 seats. The main story is in the opposition bloc: for the first time in this campaign, Gadi Eisenkot’s party is ahead of Naftali Bennett’s, with 21 seats versus 17. The Democrats led by Yair Golan and Yisrael Beytenu each get 10, Shas 9, Otzma Yehudit led by Itamar Ben Gvir 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Hadash-Ta’al 6, Ra’am 5, and the Religious Zionist Party 4. In all five surveys examined, the Religious Zionist Party clears the threshold. Benny Gantz’s Blue and White and Yoaz Hendel’s reservists party do not.
The overall balance is unchanged from last week, 53 seats for the coalition and 67 for the opposition. But 11 of those opposition seats belong to Arab parties, leaving the non-Arab opposition with only 56 seats, still not enough on paper to form a government alone. In three of the five surveys, the opposition reaches 68 or 69 seats, with the Arab parties getting 10 or 11 of them. That is true in Channel 11, Channel 12, and Channel 13. Maariv gives the opposition its best result, 71 seats, including 10 for the Arab parties, which would leave the non-Arab opposition with 61 seats and, at least theoretically, a governing majority.
Channel 14 is the most favorable to the coalition, though it also shows erosion. There, the opposition gets 58 seats and the coalition 62, but the coalition has lost another seat compared with last week. Two months ago, Channel 14 had the coalition at 66.
The article also says the week’s main public issue was the memorandum of understanding with Iran. In a Channel 13 survey focused on undecided voters, 43% preferred Netanyahu’s coalition on handling Iran, compared with 17% for Eisenkot and 15% for Bennett. Yet the same undecided voters said they would trust Bennett’s camp more on cost of living, and Eisenkot’s camp more on internal divisions in Israeli society.
