Kalshi, now one of the world’s most popular prediction platforms alongside Polymarket, is valued at an estimated $22 billion, has doubled since December, and employs 150 people. The company now handles billions of dollars in wagers and forecasts across many events, but it began, according to cofounder Luana Lopes Lara, after the 2018 media frenzy over whether reality star and cosmetics entrepreneur Kylie Jenner was pregnant.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Lopes Lara said the key insight was not the gossip itself, but the idea that millions of people form strong opinions about uncertain events and have no obvious place to put money on them. She and Tarek Mansour, whom she met while studying at MIT, founded Kalshi that same year. Mansour is usually the company’s public face, while Lopes Lara serves as chief operating officer.
At 30, Lopes Lara is among the youngest billionaire founders, with a net worth of $2.6 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, higher than Jenner’s. She oversees much of the company’s daily work, including engineering and investor relations, and also interviews job candidates. Born in Brazil and trained in ballet before moving into business, she is also planning her wedding in Iceland next year. She wakes at 5:45 a.m., exercises for an hour, then goes to Kalshi’s New York offices and often gets home only around 10 p.m. or 11 p.m. “My role in the company is to push us to achieve things, do it fast, get everything we can and grow as fast as possible,” she said.
As Kalshi has grown, criticism has intensified over the morality and legality of certain markets, including bets on trade deals, military operations and even sports attendance figures. Opponents argue such markets can invite illegal insider trading and raise ethical concerns, especially around war. One example involved Iran, where bets were placed in February on the removal of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei amid repeated threats from Donald Trump. Kalshi canceled those bets because gambling on death is formally prohibited, then later refunded roughly $2.2 million after tightening its rules. Lopes Lara acknowledged the backlash is stressful, saying, “This is where we really failed. We did not fail in the design of the market, we did not fail in the rules. We failed in not explaining it well enough to people.”
Kalshi also won a major regulatory battle in 2023 when it sued the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to be allowed to list bets on congressional election results, and the court sided with the company in time for the November 2024 election. But it still faces lawsuits from 19 U.S. states over sports betting, and Arizona has filed criminal charges. Lopes Lara said, “If it has to go all the way to the Supreme Court, then it will go to the Supreme Court. We are very confident in our case.” To improve its image, Kalshi signed a sponsorship deal with Madison Square Garden and a promotional contract with actor Timothée Chalamet, who is dating Jenner. The company also counts Donald Trump Jr. and Jay-Z as advisers, though Lopes Lara said Trump Jr. is not involved in regulatory discussions. Kalshi’s next goal is international expansion, but early attempts have met resistance, including a block in Brazil over fears of illegal sports betting.
