A Hebrew-language report explores the so-called Doomsday Argument, a disputed statistical method that tries to estimate when humanity might end. It is based on the Copernican principle, the idea that humans do not occupy a special place in time or the universe, and it assumes we are not living unusually early in human history.
Using an estimated 117 billion people who have ever lived on Earth, the argument says there is a 95% chance that those people already account for at least 5% of everyone who will ever be born. On that basis, the total number of humans who may ever live is calculated at about 2.34 trillion, which, at current birth rates, would be reached in roughly 17,100 years.
The article stresses that this does not predict a cause of extinction, whether nuclear war, climate change, a pandemic, resource shortages, artificial intelligence, or something else. It also notes that the figure is only a statistical upper bound if the underlying assumptions are accepted, and that many scientists reject or heavily qualify the idea because it ignores major future possibilities such as survival technologies or space colonies.
The piece also cites a separate University of Milan model examining a severe environmental collapse scenario, in which Earth’s carrying capacity could fall to about 2 billion people and the global population might be cut dramatically by 2064. The researchers described that work as a mathematical illustration, not a forecast. Finally, it quotes Nobel Prize-winning physicist David Gross, who said, “the odds that we will live another 50 years are very small,” and warned that an all-out global disaster, especially nuclear war, could occur around 2061. He also raised concerns about automated and AI-linked military systems, suggesting advanced civilizations may destroy themselves before they can contact others.
