Lebanon Pilot Program Stalls, Hezbollah Shifts to Guerrilla Tactics

A pilot program in southern Lebanon, intended to disarm Hezbollah south of the Litani River, facilitate an IDF withdrawal, and transfer control to the Lebanese army, is facing significant delays. The Lebanese army is reportedly struggling to meet objectives due to legal restrictions preventing soldiers from searching homes and terrorist infrastructure in villages, limiting their operations to open and public areas. The core of the problem lies in the political sphere, with no agreement reached on who will oversee the Lebanese army's work, the criteria they must meet, or the exact conditions for an IDF withdrawal.

An earlier proposal for Italian forces to supervise the process has not yet materialized. While the stalled program grants the IDF crucial operational space to complete its mission in the Ali Taher ridge, where dozens of Hezbollah operatives are currently trapped, and to improve its control and infrastructure, it also raises concerns about a potential return to the bloody conflicts of the past. Meanwhile, fighting on the Ali Taher ridge is progressing, causing tension within Hezbollah, evidenced by a recent drone attack on IDF forces that resulted in no casualties.

A study by the Alma Research Center indicates Hezbollah is adapting to the new reality. Following the destruction of its Radwan force infrastructure and the thwarting of invasion plans for the Galilee, the organization has abandoned large-scale operations in favor of decentralized guerrilla warfare by small cells, similar to tactics used in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah is reportedly gathering intelligence on IDF soldiers to prepare for ambushes, drone attacks, and explosive devices.

Israel is attempting to exert U.S. pressure on the Lebanese government and army to advance the pilot program. The IDF's completion of operations in the Ali Taher ridge, coupled with U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts, is expected to push parties towards establishing an agreed-upon enforcement force and clear criteria. The Northern Command is preparing for the holiday season and winter, including drills for extreme weather conditions and a focus on countering the drone threat. While a broad technological solution is lacking, soldiers are being trained in new procedures and protective measures.

The IDF's current operations have significantly impacted Hezbollah's infrastructure. The situation in northern Lebanon remains tied to the balance of power with Iran, with potential escalation between the U.S. and Iran expected to directly affect the Lebanese arena. This occurs amidst rising tensions in various regions, including Gaza and the West Bank, and ongoing discussions between Prime Minister Netanyahu and U.S. ambassadors regarding the stalled Lebanon pilot program.