“It Will Happen This Year”: Alarming Forecast About the Glacier That Could Wipe Out Coastal Cities

An enormous iceberg broke away from Antarctica and shattered into pieces / Reuters. The Thwaites Glacier, located in Antarctica, is an incomprehensible frozen monster in size. With an area equivalent to all of Britain, or eight times the size of Israel, it is one of the largest masses of ice on Earth. But in recent years it has earned the disturbing nickname “the Doomsday Glacier,” and for good reason. Scientists estimate that a complete collapse would raise global sea levels by 65 centimeters, a nightmare scenario that could destroy entire coastal communities and create unprecedented flooding in major cities such as New York, Miami, London and San Francisco.

Researchers are now warning that the glacier’s main “protective wall” is on the verge of collapse. This is the eastern ice shelf, a vast floating barrier attached to the side of the glacier that slows its flow into the open sea. The barrier is up to 350 meters thick and covers an area of 1,500 square kilometers, roughly the size of the entire Gush Dan metropolitan area. But ocean waters warming at an alarming rate are thinning this wall from below and making the structure especially fragile.

A senior marine geophysicist named Robert Larter, a researcher with the British Antarctic Survey, is now sounding a major alarm. He says the collapse of the supporting ice shelf is highly likely to happen during the current year. In an interview with the science magazine Livescience, he explained that the last section of the ice shelf at the front is on the verge of disintegration, and that although it is not clear exactly how it will break apart, the process itself is certain. The situation is so severe that Larter admitted his research institution has already prepared an official obituary for the ice shelf.

The point of no return in the Southern Ocean. The main factor in the destructive process is the intrusion of warm water flowing beneath the ice. A research expedition that recently drilled through the ice layer found that this water significantly weakens the entire structure. Recent satellite images reveal new fracture lines opening at an accelerating pace, especially in the area where the floating ice shelf meets the bedrock beneath it. Between January 2020 and January 2026, researchers found that the flow rate of the eastern ice shelf tripled to more than 2,000 meters per year, and in recent months that acceleration has intensified further. Larter explains that the warm currents originating in the depths of the Southern Ocean are causing the main damage, and that changes in wind patterns, closely linked to the climate crisis, are pushing them directly toward the frozen continent. In his view, even if humanity somehow manages to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050, this glacier has already sealed its fate and the consequences are unavoidable.

The impact on coastal cities is expected to be catastrophic. A rise of one or two meters in sea level would turn severe flooding events that occur once a century into an annual routine that would require unprecedented infrastructure preparedness. Beyond that, the loss of the glacier could destabilize additional areas of Antarctica’s West Ice Shelf, which could ultimately lead to an unimaginable rise of more than three meters in sea level over the long term.

Are the fears completely overblown? Despite the grim forecasts, there are also other voices in the scientific community calling for a bit of calm. Dr. Daniel Goldberg, an ice shelf expert at the University of Edinburgh, does agree with the assessment that the eastern ice shelf will collapse this year. Speaking to the Daily Mail, he noted that in satellite images the area already looks like a collection of icebergs that are simply floating together by chance. However, he argues that the impact of this collapse on the Doomsday Glacier as a whole has been overstated, and it is not certain that it will lead to a dramatic acceleration of its flow into the sea.

Goldberg and his team conducted experiments using advanced computer models to examine what would happen if the floating ice shelf were completely removed. The results showed only a negligible difference in the development of the main glacier. In his view, this particular barrier does not really provide the critical support it is often thought to, so its removal would not immediately shock the entire system. Even so, he admits that Thwaites Glacier is one of the most difficult glaciers to model accurately, and it is therefore very hard to determine exactly when, or even whether, this frozen monster will fully collapse.