Amir Winter Faces Political Trap as Netanyahu Weighs Risks Ahead of Elections

Retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter's entry into Israeli politics is stirring controversy within the right-wing camp, with political analyst Amit Segal outlining the challenges Winter faces and the dilemmas confronting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Segal argues that for Winter to succeed in the upcoming elections, he must rapidly build momentum and clearly commit to joining only a Netanyahu-led government to avoid losing crucial right-wing votes. However, this pledge may alienate voters who have already shifted away from Netanyahu's bloc.

Netanyahu's camp is reportedly suspicious of Winter's moves, influenced by political advisor Natan Eshel's claim that Winter is already aligned with Avigdor Lieberman. This suspicion is reinforced by Winter's refusal of a guaranteed spot on the Likud list, as Winter apparently sees himself as a potential prime minister candidate. While Netanyahu once viewed Winter as a political asset, he now perceives him as an immediate threat.

Polling data raises concerns within Likud about the future of the Religious Zionism parties, especially if Bezalel Smotrich fails to cross the electoral threshold while Winter does. A possible merger between Likud and Religious Zionism is being considered despite its high cost, but there are fears it could inadvertently boost Winter. A technical bloc between Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir is off the table due to mutual animosity.

Another scenario is running separate lists, risking vote splitting. Segal recalls that similar splits led to Netanyahu's defeat in 2019 and the opposition's failure in 2022, questioning whether this time the outcome will differ.